Agricultural Sector and HIV/AIDS Pandemic in Africa: The Economic Retrogression Model

Abstract

Objective: Agricultural activities in most African countries demand human labour, the supply of labour to agriculture may be threatened if humans could no longer farm because of HIV/AIDS pandemic. Past studies have identified the alarming situation and challenges the spread of HIV/AIDS endemic poses to human existence and agricultural growth. Examining these interactions, and their direction, is useful for informing policy directives. Therefore, the general objective of this study is to examine interactions between HIV/AIDS pandemic and agricultural growth in Africa using a model of retrogression. Methods: Twenty countries in Africa identified as HIV/AIDS ravaged countries were taken as the areas of study. These countries are spread over four zones of the Northern Africa, the Eastern, the Southern and the Sub-Saharan Africa. A combination of analytical tools was employed to meet the study objectives. Results: The results revealed that long run economic cost of HIV/AIDS had a statistical positive significant relationship with agricultural/economic growth. The results suggest that there is a curvilinear relationship between the course of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and agricultural/economic growth in terms of human capita development. Conclusions: HIV/AIDS pandemic interactions and agricultural growth have demonstrated that a more balanced approach is necessary for effective policy.