Prediction interval: A powerful statistical tool for monitoring patients and analytical systems

Abstract

Monitoring is indispensable for assessing disease prognosis and evaluating the effectiveness of treatment strategies, both of which rely on serial measurements of patients’ data. It also plays a critical role in maintaining the stability of analytical systems, which is achieved through serial measurements of quality control samples. Accurate monitoring can be achieved through data collection, following a strict preanalytical and analytical protocol, and the application of a suitable statistical method. In a stable process, future observations can be predicted based on historical data collected during periods when the process was deemed reliable. This can be evaluated using the statistical prediction interval. Statistically, prediction interval gives an “interval” based on historical data where future measurement results can be located with a specified probability such as 95%. Prediction interval consists of two primary components: (i) the set point and (ii) the total variation around the set point which determines the upper and lower limits of the interval. Both can be calculated using the repeated measurement results obtained from the process during its steady-state. In this paper, (i) the theoretical bases of prediction intervals were outlined, and (ii) its practical application was explained through examples, aiming to facilitate the implementation of prediction intervals in laboratory medicine routine practice, as a robust tool for monitoring patients’ data and analytical systems.