Affordable private rental supply and demand: short-term disruption (2016-2021) and longer-term structural change (1996-2021)

Abstract

Assuming that the rate of newly built dwellings was similar between 2016 and 2021 to previous intercensal periods, it is likely that the 'additional' dwellings (households) are largely those that were enumerated differently from the previous Census: essentially, dwellings that were 'unoccupied' in 2016 had a household residing in them in 2021 and were, therefore, enumerated as 'occupied'. Table A22 presents counts and rates of change of dwellings by occupancy type for the last four censuses. It shows almost no growth in unoccupied dwellings (nationally) between 2016 and 2021 (only 3,914 dwellings), a change totally inconsistent with two previous intercensal periods where the numbers of unoccupied dwellings increased by over 100,000 in each period (12.5% and 11.3%, respectively). Table A24 shows that the number of unoccupied dwellings declined in all state metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas, apart from Sydney and Melbourne, between 2016 and 2021, again a change inconsistent with the earlier intercensal period in which there were increased numbers of unoccupied dwellings in all regions. These patterns suggest that, along with more people counted at home, newly formed households may have been occupying stock (regardless of tenure) that had previously been enumerated as 'unoccupied', particularly outside of the capital cities. This includes stock that may have transferred from short-term rental to long-term, or from holiday rental to the ownership sector - all responses to COVID-19 conditions, including the unusual movement of people to, but not from, regional areas.