IMPACT OF BUSINESS CONFIDENCE ON CREDIT DEMAND IN PERU: AN ARDL APPROACH

Abstract

The objective of this article is to verify that in estimating demand of credit to enterprises not only are relevant traditional macroeconomic variables, but also are relevant expectations. In this context is verified the importance of business confidence index as a determinant of credit demand to the enterprises in Peru. The study identifies one cointegrating relationship between demand of credit to enterprises, gross domestic product, interest rate and business confidence index between first quarter 2003 and third quarter 2020, using an Autoregressive Distributed-Lagged Model (ARDL). It is verified that business confidence index is a relevant variable to estimate a credit demand to entreprises