Oil temperature forecasting of UHV shunt reactor based on K-means clustering method and similar period

Abstract

A method of oil temperature forecasting of UHV(Ultra High Voltage) shunt reactor is proposed to evaluate the insulation state of UHV shunt reactor in time. Firstly, based on the "single peak single valley" changing trend of UHV shunt reactor's oil temperature curve, the oil temperature curve is divided into two parts of valley period and peak period by using K-means clustering method. Then, the main influencing factors of the oil temperature of UHV shunt reactor are analyzed. According to K-means clustering and the time principle of "near big and far small", the similar period is obtained by three classifications based on weather, oil temperature and time factors. Finally, the calculation process of the oil temperature forecasting method based on similar period is given in detail. The proposed method is applied to the oil temperature forecasting work of a UHV shunt reactor in Jiangsu area, the results show that the average error of the proposed method is 1.03 % and the max error is 4.84 %, which shows the high forecasting accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed method.