Impacts of Terrorism in the United Kingdom and Europe on Tourism in the United Kingdom

Abstract

Terrorist attacks occur more and more frequently. Therefore, people from all over the world pay more and more attention to them. This paper will focus on the relationship between terrorism and tourism in the United Kingdom, especially focusing on the relationship between terrorism in the United Kingdom or in Europe and tourism in the United Kingdom. This paper applies the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to figure out their relationship. The data used in this article are from the website of the United Kingdom’s office for national statistics and the website of the global terrorism database respectively. Firstly, using the ADF test to figure out whether all these three variables, tourists arrivals, terrorist attacks happened in the U.K. and terrorist attacks happened in Europe continent, are stationary. Secondly, use the ARDL model to test whether terrorism in the United Kingdom and Europe respectively has an impact on British tourism. The results show that terrorism in the United Kingdom has a negative impact on British tourism while terrorism in Europe has a positive impact on it. The results are unexpected. Then analyzing the reasons why terrorism in Europe has a positive impact on tourism in the United Kingdom. But whether these reasons are true needs to explore furtherly.