The sustainable existence of China's bicycle-sharing market: To oversupply or to disappear

Abstract

Most cities in China benefit from having a commercial and public bicycle-sharing system. However, the bicycle-sharing markets still face unbalanced development problems, i.e., initial rapid expansion in most areas, and a recent disappearance in some local areas. Thus, the economic features and rules of this market need further exploration to introduce better management measures. Based on agent-based modeling, the current paper stimulated the interactions between supply and demand with two models to illuminate the supply characteristics of the bicycle-sharing market. The main findings included the following: (1) the bicycle-sharing market is governed by a set of objective laws which naturally require an oversupply, meaning that the attainment of a high level of user satisfaction depends on high supply; (2) based on each customer's tolerance level, there is a supply density threshold that determines the existence and disappearance of the market; and (3) the width and elasticity of the supply density threshold are influenced by the tolerance of the customers, which, in turn, reflects their values and attitudes. The current research is a preliminary exploration of the interactive characteristics of supply and demand in the bicycle-sharing market. We believe that the current paper provides insights and implications to illuminate the law of existence in the bicycle-sharing market. It also includes a discussion on the sustainable development of the bicycle-sharing market in China.