Multi-Dimensional Impacts of Climate Change on China’s Food Security during 2002–2021

Abstract

Climate change poses a significant threat to food security, necessitating a thorough examination across multiple dimensions. Establishing appropriate food security evaluation indicators that align with the evolving concept of food security is imperative. This study enhances food security evaluation by designing a multi-dimensional framework and analyzing the impact of climate variations across various regions from 2002 to 2021. By constructing a food security evaluation system that encompasses the production quantity and quality, sustainability, affordability, and resources, and utilizing the entropy method for accurate weighting, the impacts of climate variations on food security are accessed using a climate–economic model. The food security structure in China largely mirrors the regional division of grain, with the production quantity being the primary contributor. Overall, China’s food security has generally demonstrated improvements across various dimensions, with the exception of production quality. Regarding climate change, which encompasses variations in mean states and climate extremes, the panel regression analysis uncovers a negative linear relationship between food security and temperature. Conversely, the impact of precipitation on food security is non-linear, manifesting as inverse U-shaped patterns. In regions with balanced production and consumption, both accumulated temperatures and extreme high temperatures have a negative linear effect on food security. On the other hand, both accumulated and extreme precipitation exhibit inverse U-shaped non-linear impacts on food security in the main production and main consumption regions. These findings highlight the intricate interplay between climate change, regional disparities, and food security in China, emphasizing the need to consider multi-dimensional factors and regional variations in addressing food security challenges. These insights are invaluable for policymaking and planning aimed at enhancing food security in China.