Religiosity and Voter Turnout in a Context of Mistrust of the Electoral System in Africa

Abstract

This paper aims to examine whether religiosity can stimulate voter turnout in a context of citizen distrust of the electoral system in Africa. The analysis is based on a sample of 9459 citizens living in eight African countries, drawn from the 7th round of the World Value Surveys. The econometric results, obtained using an ordered probit model with an endogenous covariate, show that increasing levels of religiosity increase national and local voter turnout. However, this positive influence of religiosity is completely offset by citizens' sense of failure in the electoral system. In fact, the likelihood of participating in local and national elections decreases significantly among citizens with high levels of religiosity when they believe that (i) votes are not counted fairly, (ii) journalists are prevented from covering elections fairly, (iii) election officials are corrupt and unfair, (iv) the muzzling of opposition leaders limits the choice of candidates, and (v) women are discriminated against in the management of polling stations. Related Articles: Bodjongo, M., and M. Juliot. 2024. “Why Is Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections Increasing Among People Concerned About the Risk of COVID-19 Worsening in Africa?” Politics & Policy 52, no. 5: 1101–1136. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12624. Stockemer, D. 2016. “Is the Turnout Function in Democracies and Nondemocracies Alike or Different?” Politics & Policy 44, no. 5: 889–915. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12174. Stockemer, D., and S. Parent. 2014. “The Inequality Turnout Nexus—New Evidence From Presidential Elections.” Politics & Policy 42, no. 2: 221–245. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12067.