Assessing Consumer Implications of Reduced Salmon Supply and Environmental Impact in North America

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of the Canadian government’s decision to reduce the supply of farm-raised salmon in British Columbia (BC) on domestic prices, the level of imports, and the environment. By drawing upon data from diverse sources, this study employs the SARIMAX model to forecast future trends in salmon prices up to 2026. The forecasted results reveal that retail salmon prices will exhibit greater unpredictability and a predicted price increase of over CAD 30 per kilogram by 2026. In addition, increased consumption of imported salmon due to BC farm closure is expected to contribute to heightened carbon emissions and result in job losses within rural and indigenous communities. In short, BC salmon farm closure carries profound consequences for both the environment and market dynamics.