Harmonised assessment of environmental impacts from diets and dietary scenarios: sustainability and protein intake in eleven European countries

Abstract

Introduction: Improving human and planetary health is one of the most important challenges of the current century. Demand-side food policy strategies can be implemented to achieve this dual objective. To develop and implement policy measures effectively, it is essential to conduct upfront analyses that demonstrate their potential impact. Objective: To explore the harmonised assessment of environmental impacts of national representative food consumption surveys using the MCRA software, and to demonstrate the framework by assessing the potential environmental impact of food policy strategies that aim to simultaneously improve human and planetary health. Methods: Individual-level food consumption data from 11 European countries were used to evaluate current diets and the potential impact of demand-side food policy scenarios designed to reflect health and sustainability objectives. Dutch life-cycle assessment data were used to estimate six environmental impact indicators. Food composition data were applied to estimate protein intake. Food consumption, dietary environmental impacts, and protein intake were estimated and modelled using the MCRA (Monte-Carlo Risk Assessment) software for baseline and alternative scenarios. Results: In the baseline scenarios, daily average GHG emissions ranged from 4.01 kg CO2-eq per person in Cyprus to 6.30 kg CO2-eq in France. Blue water consumption averaged between 104 L per person per day in the Czech Republic and 256 L in Italy. Across all countries, the environmental impact of diets specific to each country demonstrated potential reductions up to 55% in GHG emissions, land use, blue water consumption, and animal protein, and reductions up to 70% in freshwater and marine eutrophication, acidification, when meat intake was reduced and/or replaced by legumes or meat substitutes. Strategies such as replacing dairy with dairy substitutes, soft drinks with water, and limiting confectionery foods demonstrated less pronounced effects on environmental indicators, with reductions ranging from 1 to 11%. Strategies aimed at increasing fruit and vegetable consumption had adverse environmental effects, increasing environment impacts by up to 7% and blue water consumption by up to 14%. Conclusion: Using the MCRA framework, this study demonstrates that harmonised assessment of current diets and the potential impacts of dietary scenarios can effectively inform policy development. Policies reducing animal food consumption and increasing plant-based intake offer the greatest environmental benefits, particularly when meat is substituted with plant-based alternatives. Implementation of coherent, multi-level policy instruments and tailored country-specific approaches will be essential for achieving both human and planetary health objectives.