Aging, uncertainty, and decision making—A review

Abstract

There is a great deal of uncertainty in the world. One common source of uncertainty results from incomplete or missing information about probabilistic outcomes (i.e., outcomes that may occur), which influences how people make decisions. The impact of this type of uncertainty may particularly pronounced for older adults, who, as the primary leaders around the world, make highly impactful decisions with lasting outcomes. This review examines the ways in which uncertainty about probabilistic outcomes is perceived, handled, and represented in the aging brain, with an emphasis on how uncertainty may specifically affect decision making in later life. We describe the role of uncertainty in decision making and aging from four perspectives, including 1) theoretical, 2) self-report, 3) behavioral, and 4) neuroscientific. We report evidence of any age-related differences in uncertainty among these contexts and describe how these changes may affect decision making. We then integrate the findings across the distinct perspectives, followed by a discussion of important future directions for research on aging and uncertainty, including prospection, domain-specificity in risk-taking behaviors, and choice overload.