The economic consequences of future climate change in the forest sector of Russia

Abstract

A prediction estimate of the economic consequences of climate change for forestry in the subjects of the Russian Federation at the end of the 21st century was made. The estimate is based on mass ensemble calculations of climate changes with high spatial resolution. Due to the expected growth in productivity, stock of coniferous and hardwood timber will increase, which may lead to an increase in the economic evaluation of forests. As a result of climate-related fire risk changes in the subjects of Russia, an increase in the total amount of forest fires extinguishing costs by the end of the century is expected. An economic evaluation of possible damage shows that, on average in Russia, the amount of forest fires extinguishing costs can increase with the realization of radiation exposure scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, with an accumulated amount of 211.114 thousand rubles and 248.956 thousand rubles.