Demographic transition and potential for development: The case of Iraqi Kurdistan

Abstract

The effect of population growth and demographic transition on economic development has been well documented. The population growth in Iraqi Kurdistan is passing through a critical stage of demographic transition. It is, in fact, extremely likely that the region will fail to efficiently move through the demographic transition and will experience a long period in the demographic trap, i.e. the population will grow steadily and rapidly owing to the high fertility and low mortality rates. With correct government policies in terms of promoting family planning programmes, should the political context allow, demographic transition can pass smoothly through this critical stage. Furthermore, if demographic transition in Kurdistan moves to the next stage, it will provide an important window of opportunity for economic development. Proper exploitation of this demographic window through investment in education, on-the-job training and health services, in addition to proper and appropriate exploitation of economic resources and suitable and productive use of the labour force, will result in significant economic development over the next few decades.