Estimation of Methane Gas Production in Turkey Using Machine Learning Methods

Abstract

Methane gas emission into the atmosphere is rising due to the use of fossil-based resources in post-industrial energy use, as well as the increase in food demand and organic wastes that comes with an increasing human population. For this reason, methane gas, which is among the greenhouse gases, is seen as an important cause of climate change along with carbon dioxide. The aim of this study was to predict, using machine learning, the emission of methane gas, which has a greater effect on the warming of the atmosphere than other greenhouse gases. Methane gas estimation in Turkey was carried out using machine learning methods. The R2 metric was calculated as logistic regression (LR) 94.9%, artificial neural networks (ANNs) 93.6%, and support vector regression (SVR) 92.3%. All three machine learning methods used in the study were close to ideal statistical criteria. LR had the least error and highest prediction success, followed by ANNs and then SVR. The models provided successful results, which will be useful in the formulation of policies in terms of animal production (especially cattle production) and the disposal of organic human wastes, which are thought to be the main causes of methane gas emission.