Economics and the future of transport

Abstract

Economic analysis applied to transport is faced with four crises. They are (a) evidence of a profound (and favorable) shift in long term trends, which should change forecasts of future traffic levels; (b) doubts in the axiom that transport investment necessarily supports economic growth; (c) rethinking the relevance and reliability of long established formal methods of assessing the benefits and costs of transport projects; (d) unfavorable pressures to reduce spending on small, widely spread, local policy initiatives which assist behaviour change and sustainability, in favour of larger 'flagship' investments whose impacts may be the opposite of intentions. It is argued that a broad evidence base now supports sustainable transport policies which can reduce car dependence, improve health, and give both environmental and economic benefits.