Sømilitær vurdering af Ruslands Østersøflåde og de militære implikationer for Danmark

Abstract

This article provides an evaluation of the capabilities of the Russian Baltic Fleet. It is shown that the Baltic Fleet is the smallest of Russia’s fleets, but that it also has the most modern ships. Even so, the Baltic Fleet still has a large heritage of old equipment from the Soviet era. The assessment is that the Russian Baltic Fleet would be unable to stand up to NATO in a war. Rather, it is a fleet designed for peacetime and operations in the grey zone below armed conflict. This knowledge is used to derive policy recommendations for the development of the Danish military. Scenarios for peacetime, war, and grey zone conflicts are discussed. It is argued that in case of a war, peer-level maritime threats will come from the Russian Northern Fleet, and that maritime operations in the Baltic Sea will focus on different kinds of challenges. It is suggested that Denmark needs to improve its capabilities for deterrence and maritime security operations in the Baltic Sea region. Currently, Denmark relies on just five large warships to solve many tasks, which leaves the Navy at risk of being overstretched.