Determinants of early marriage in Iran: a multivariate survivorship analysis using census microdata

Abstract

Recent reductions in female age at marriage in Iran correspond with the rise in the proportion of girls marrying at young ages. This paper aims to determine to what extent the probability of surviving in the never-married state by age 18 is affected by different time-invariant demographic, socio-economic, and cultural factors. A multivariate survivorship analysis was applied to the 2% micro-data from two successive censuses. This method is useful where longitudinal family surveys are not available. The findings indicate that (1) gender and ethnicity remain two important determinants of early marriage after adjusting for other covariates and (2) having literate parents substantially increases the relative probability of survival, with the literacy of the father displaying a larger influence regardless of gender and place of residence. These indicate the relevance of gender system, ethnicity, and socioeconomic standing in designing policies and interventions aimed at preventing early marriage in Iran.