The Human Factor in Early Warnings: Risk Perception and Appropriate Communications

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to highlight one of the most important factors influencing the effectiveness of early warning (EW) systems — that is, how those who are at risk from hazards perceive that risk, and how this in turn influences their response to warnings. It takes particular note of how vulnerable people, principally in the Third World, assess risk in the context of their lives and livelihoods as a whole. The paper goes on to consider how, by taking such factors into account, EW systems might be made more effective. To achieve this, it is argued, conventional ideas about how to communicate with communities at risk need to be updated by drawing upon approaches that are used in many long-term development projects in the Third World.