The rise and fall of class voting in Britain, 1885–2024

Abstract

Understanding when and why social cleavages shape electoral behaviour is a central concern in the study of democratic politics. While many accounts emphasise the long-term social changes, others point to the role of party strategy. We contribute to this debate by analysing the political evolution of one of the central cleavages of the twentieth century—class—in one of the world’s longest-standing democracies—Britain. Analysing a unique new dataset combining constituency-level results across 37 general elections from 1885 to 2024 with data from eight censuses, applying geospatial redistricting methods, we describe the rise, stability and eventual decline of class-based voting, showing that a strong class cleavage emerged in the early twentieth century, remained stable for decades, but then unravelled rapidly after the 1990s. These patterns are difficult to reconcile with theories that emphasise gradual social change and are more consistent with accounts that stress political agency and representation.