Excess deaths from respiratory causes in eight Brazilian metropolises during the first six months of the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

In Brazil, one of the countries most heavily affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, mortality data fail to reflect the real number of deaths from the disease. The study aimed to estimate excess deaths from respiratory causes and their trends during the first six month of the COVID-19 epidemic in adults 20 years or older in eight regional metropolises in Brazil. In this ecological study, deaths from respiratory causes (influenza, pneumonias, bronchitis, other chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, acute or chronic respiratory failure, respiratory failure or respiratory disorder not otherwise specified, and other deaths coded with respiratory symptoms) were extracted from the Mortality Information System. Expected deaths were estimated with quasi-Poisson generalized additive models. From February 23 to August 8, 2020, 46,028 deaths from respiratory causes were recorded in the eight cities, with an excess of 312% (95%CI: 304-321). Manaus (Amazonas State), presented the highest excess, with 758% (95%CI: 668-858) and São Paulo the lowest, with 174% (95%CI: 164-183). Early excess mortality was detected in Epidemiological Weeks (EW) 9-12 in Belém (Pará State), Fortaleza (Ceará State), and São Paulo. In general, excess mortality was relatively higher in the 40-59-year age bracket and in men. Excess mortality was regionally heterogeneous, with 2,463% (95%CI: 1,881-3,281) in EW 17-20 in Manaus (North Region) and 808% (95%CI: 612- 1,059) in EW 28-32 in Curitiba (Paraná State, South Region). The high and heterogeneous percentage of excess respiratory deaths suggests high underreporting of COVID-19 deaths, which highlights regional inequalities and the need for revision of deaths associated with respiratory symptoms.