Polarization and context: measuring and explaining political polarization in Brazil

Abstract

This article analyzes whether affective polarization and (or) ideological polarization is ongoing in Brazil, what are its characteristics and whether it is concentrated in certain groups in Brazilian society. The research uses data from Eseb (2002 – 2018) and Lapop (2010 – 2019). The results indicate that: 1) there is an increase in polarization, but it is predominantly affective and more intense in relation to the candidates; 2) although there are already some signs in 2014, affective polarization is much more visible in 2018; 3) in ideology, evidence indicates a growth and radicalization of the right, which may eventually contribute to a polarization. Given this evidence, it is concluded that the specific characteristics of Brazilian polarization are related to aspects of our political context, both long-term, such as the reduced social base of the parties, and more recent ones, such as the reorganization of the right and moderation of PT. In common with other countries, there is, in Brazil, the concentration of polarization in politically engaged individuals.