Evaluating CO2 Emissions in the Residential Sector: Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) using Regional Forestry Design Models in System Dynamics (SD)

Abstract

This study used a sub-model within system dynamics to simulate and quantify CO2 emissions in the residential sector, focusing on the Nishikawa forestry region in Saitama Prefecture. The model evaluated emissions from the life cycle of houses, including production, transportation, use, maintenance, and disposal. The business as usual (BAU) scenario projects annual new housing inflows. The woody biomass utilization (WBU) scenario showed a 10% carbon reduction over 30 years by replacing new housing with timber construction, despite increased emissions from new constructions. The study highlights the economic benefits of utilizing carbon credits to support reforestation, making it possible to secure the sustainability of regional forestry to supply timber materials to the residential sector.