Validating Meteosat Second Generation and Himawari-8 Derived Solar Irradiance against Ground Measurements: Solarad AI’s Approach

Abstract

This study assesses the efficacy of the Heliosat-2 algorithm for estimating solar radiation, comparing its outputs against ground measurements across seven distinct countries: the Netherlands, Spain, Japan, Namibia, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, and India. To achieve this, the study utilizes two distinct satellite data sources—Himawari-8 for Japan and Metosat Second Generation-MSG for the rest of the countries—and spanning the time between January 2022 and April 2024. A robust methodology for determining albedo parameters specific to Heliosat-2 was developed. During cloudy days, the estimates provided by Heliosat-2 generally exceeded the ground measurements in all of the countries. Conversely, on clear days, there was a tendency for underestimation, as indicated by the median values of the mean bias (MB) across most of the countries. The Heliosat-2 model slightly underestimates daily radiation values, with a median MB ranging from −27.5 to +10.2 W·m−2. Notably, the median root mean square error (RMSE) on clear days is significantly lower, with values ranging from 24.8 to 108.7 W·m−2, compared to cloudy days, for which RMSE values lie between 75.3 and 180.2 W·m−2. In terms of R2 values, both satellites show strong correlations between the estimated and actual values, with a median value consistently above 0.86 on a monthly scale and over 92% of daily data points falling within ±2 standard deviations.