A Comprehensive Analysis of Potato Production and Trade: Global Trends and U.S. Production Forecasting

Abstract

Potato is a globally important crop valued for its high yield potential, nutritional content, and culinary and industrial versatility. This study aimed to analyze U.S. and global potato production trends, explore U.S. trade dynamics, and forecast U.S. production. The analysis was based on secondary production and trade data (2015–2022) collected from FAOSTAT and USDA databases. Different time-series forecasting models were evaluated based on Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squared Deviation (MSD), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) to predict U.S. potato production trends from 2023–2025. The analysis revealed that global potato production exhibited an upward trend, whereas U.S. potato production showed a downward trend. The U.S. potato trade data showed fluctuations, with periods of both trade surpluses and deficits observed during the study period. The Quadratic trend model, identified as the best-fitting forecasting model for this study, projected an accelerated decline in U.S. potato production from 2023–2025. This decreasing trend signaled prevailing challenges in U.S. potato production, highlighting the need for targeted government interventions to stabilize production and enhance the market competitiveness of potatoes.