La hidrología como predictor del comportamiento del precio de energía en bolsa

Abstract

In this paper we are interested in investigating the effect of the hydrology and the weather on the energy spot prices in the Colombian electric market. To this end we perform dynamic models, specifically we estimate autoregressive distributed lag models (ARDL) and vector autoregressive models (VAR). In addition, we use VAR for simulating impulse-response function and forecasting. Our main conclusion is that given the structure of the Colombian electric market, hydrology has an appreciable effect on energy pricing as well as energy demand. About forecasting energy prices, these display an increasing trend for the next years.