Money Supply, Inflation and Exchange Rate Movement: The Case of Cambodia by Bayesian VAR Approach

Abstract

This research paper aims to investigate the relationship among money supply, inflation and exchange rate in Cambodia by using Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (B-VAR) approach. This study employs the monthly data in the period of October-2009 and April-2018. This research paper applies the Money-in-Utility Function (MIU) that describes the relationship between money growth and price level. Moreover, this paper also employs the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) which shows the relationship between exchange rate and inflation. The empirical results reveal that money supply in Cambodia, depends on its previous variable. Moreover, money supply also induces the depreciation of exchange rate of Khmer Riel against US Dollar and leads to increase in inflation. Money supply induces 8% of shock to exchange rate and 0.13% to inflation based on variance decomposition while exchange rate can cause 0.024% to inflation in Cambodia. The relative low shocks from money supply to inflation and exchange rate results in supplying money with cautious manner from National Bank of Cambodia. The empirical results are found to be consistent with the theories and some empirical studied of this related fields.