Landscape patterns and their spatial associations with ecosystem service balance: Insights from a rapidly urbanizing coastal region of southeastern China

Abstract

Abstract: Assessing ecosystem service (ES) balance and exploring critical drivers are crucial for landscape management. However, a lack of understanding of the determinants of the ecosystem service supply–demand budget, their spillover effects, and spatial variabilities offsets the efficacy of landscape planning and ecosystem conservation. This novel study attempted to close this gap by quantifying ecosystem service budget using an expert knowledge-based supply–demand matrix and explored its dependencies through spatial econometrics and geographically weighted regression approaches instead of using ordinary model simulation and conventional statistical analysis. The overall patterns of ecosystem service balance in the southeastern coast were found to have remained stable in 1980, 2000, and 2017, although remarkable ecosystem service deficits were identified in hotspots of rapid urbanization. The ecosystem service balance was negatively associated with the proportions of built-up land and cropland (p < 0.0001) and exhibited positive associations with the proportions of woodland and grassland (p < 0.0001). Landscape structure and population density were identified as the primary determinants of ecosystem service balance and exhibited spatial variability and spillover effects (i.e., determining ecosystem service balance in both individual and adjacent units). These findings demonstrate the significance of spatial disparities and external effects of determinants of the supply–demand budget in integrative landscape governance. Consequently, localized and targeted strategies for landscape planning are increasingly needed to optimize landscape configuration and alleviate ecosystem service imbalance according to individual socioeconomic conditions and landscape structures. In addition, the spillover effects demonstrate that the maintenance of regional ecosystem service balance and ecosystem sustainability depends not only on individual areas but also on cross-regional collaborations with neighboring regions. These findings have critical implications on strategy formulation for coastal landscape management and ecosystem sustainability.