Abortion Legalization and Adolescent Fertility: New Evidence for Uruguay Based on the Synthetic Control Method

Abstract

A decade after Uruguay legalized abortion at the end of 2012, the adolescent fertility rate dropped to one-third of its previous level. This article aims to establish a causal relationship. To estimate the impact of the abortion reform on adolescent fertility, I use the Synthetic Control Method, comparing trends in Uruguay with Latin American and Caribbean countries with restrictive abortion laws. The results suggest that the adolescent fertility rate declined by 8.3 births per 1,000 girls aged 15–19 between 2013 and 2019, almost 15% relative to the synthetic control unit. This effect is statistically significant and robust. To date, evidence on the impact of Uruguay’s abortion legalization on adolescent fertility that has addressed endogeneity is mixed and based entirely on identification strategies that exploit different sources of exogenous within-country variation that determine exposure to the reform. My contribution here is to exploit cross-country variation to bring new evidence to the ongoing debate, providing critical insights for reproductive health and gender equality in the region.