Prioritising deteriorating patients using time-to-event analysis: prediction model development and internal–external validation

Abstract

Background: Binary classification models are frequently used to predict clinical deterioration, however they ignore information on the timing of events. An alternative is to apply time-to-event models, augmenting clinical workflows by ranking patients by predicted risks. This study examines how and why time-to-event modelling of vital signs data can help prioritise deterioration assessments using lift curves, and develops a prediction model to stratify acute care inpatients by risk of clinical deterioration. Methods: We developed and validated a Cox regression for time to in-hospital mortality. The model used time-varying covariates to estimate the risk of clinical deterioration. Adult inpatient medical records from 5 Australian hospitals between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2020 were used for model development and validation. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed using internal–external cross validation. A discrete-time logistic regression model predicting death within 24 h with the same covariates was used as a comparator to the Cox regression model to estimate differences in predictive performance between the binary and time-to-event outcome modelling approaches. Results: Our data contained 150,342 admissions and 1016 deaths. Model discrimination was higher for Cox regression than for discrete-time logistic regression, with cross-validated AUCs of 0.96 and 0.93, respectively, for mortality predictions within 24 h, declining to 0.93 and 0.88, respectively, for mortality predictions within 1 week. Calibration plots showed that calibration varied by hospital, but this can be mitigated by ranking patients by predicted risks. Conclusion: Time-varying covariate Cox models can be powerful tools for triaging patients, which may lead to more efficient and effective care in time-poor environments when the times between observations are highly variable.