Quantifying the Influence of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on the Net Primary Productivity of China’s Grasslands

Abstract

As one of China’s most common vegetation types, grasslands comprise about 27.5% of its terrestrial area and 41% of its carbon storage. Since climate change (CC) and human activities (HA) have a great effect on grasslands, quantifying the contributions of CC and HA on grassland net primary productivity (NPP) is crucial in understanding the mechanisms of grassland regional carbon balances. However, current approaches, including residual trend, biophysical model and environmental background-based methods, have limitations on different scales, especially on the national scale of China. To improve assessment accuracy, modifications to the environmental background-based method were introduced in calculating the CC and HA contributions to the actual NPP (ANPP). In this study, the grassland ANPP in national nature reserves was defined as the environmental background value (PNPP), which was only affected by CC and without HA. The pixel PNPP outside the nature reserves could be replaced by the pixel PNPP in the nature reserve with the most similar habitat in the same natural ecological geographical division. The impact of HA on grassland ANPP (HNPP) could be identified by calculating the difference between PNPP and ANPP. Finally, the contributions of CC and HA to ANPP changes were assessed by the trends of ANPP, PNPP, and HNPP. The results showed that the average grassland ANPP significantly increased from 2001 to 2020. CC contributed 71.0% to ANPP change, whereas HA contributed 29.0%. Precipitation was the main contributor to grassland growth among arid and semi-arid regions, while temperature inhibited productivity in these areas. HA was the major cause of degradation in China’s grasslands, although the effects have declined over time. The research could provide support support for government decisions. It could also provide a new and feasible research method for quantitatively evaluating grasslands and other ecosystems.