Dynamic Selection Strategy for Cucumber Temperature Management Models in Solar Greenhouses Based on Microclimate Similarity

Abstract

The temperature management models for solar greenhouses exhibit strong regional dependency. Their application in non-target environments often faces significant limitations, frequently resulting in severe temperature control deviations. To address this challenge, seven solar greenhouses located in Lingyuan (Liaoning Province) and Yinan (Shandong Province) were utilized as experimental platforms. Using real-time environmental data collected by the NEUT-80S IoT monitoring system, backpropagation (BP) neural network models were trained and validated. Multiple stepwise regression analysis identified total solar radiation and sunshine duration as the primary determinants of cucumber yield. Based on these findings, a dynamic weight matrix was constructed using a solar radiation clustering algorithm. By integrating similarity distance and similarity coefficient, a microclimate similarity determination logic was established, leading to the proposal of an automatic model selection strategy with an 11-day update cycle. Quantitative validation demonstrated that when the threshold conditions—a similarity coefficient (R) ≥ 0.6 and a similarity distance (D) ≤ 0.85—are met, triggering the optimally matched model significantly improves the simulation goodness-of-fit (R2) from 0.6716 in the unmatched state to 0.9851. This strategy effectively achieves the cross-regional adaptation of high-yield temperature management models, providing robust technical support for the advancement of precision protected agriculture.