Nation-wide human mobility prediction based on graph neural networks

Abstract

Nowadays, the anticipation of human mobility flow has important applications in many domains ranging from urban planning to epidemiology. Because of the high predictability of human movements, numerous successful solutions to perform such forecasting have been proposed. However, most focus on predicting human displacements on an intra-urban spatial scale. This study proposes a predictor for nation-wide mobility that allows anticipating inter-urban displacements at larger spatial granularity. For this goal, a Graph Neural Network (GNN) was used to consider the latent relationships among large geographical regions. The solution has been evaluated with an open dataset including trips throughout the country of Spain and the current weather conditions. The results indicate a high accuracy in predicting the number of trips for multiple time horizons, and more important, they show that our proposal only needs a single model for processing all the mobility areas in the dataset, whereas other techniques require a different model for each area under study.