The Study of Dynamic Effect Relationships between the E-Commerce, the Logistics and Economic Growth Based on the VAR Model

Abstract

This paper establishes the vector auto-regression (VAR) model about the E-commerce, logistics and the economic output, uses the Eviews6.0 software, adopts the Chinese annual data from 2000 to 2012.It is studied that the relationships of dynamic effects between the E-commerce, logistics development and the economic growth through the Granger test and the variance decomposition. It is found that, in the long term the E-commerce development is the reasons of the Chinese logistics development and the economic GDP growth, while the economic GDP growth is not the reasons for the developments of E-commerce and the logistics. The development of logistics is not the E-commerce development and the economic GDP growth. The relationships of dynamic effect between the E-commerce, logistics and the economic growth are as follows, the development of E-commerce not only led to the development of the next logistics industry, it also effectively pull the next phase economic growth. The developments of E-commerce and the logistics industry together drive the China's next phase economic growth, the development's inertia of China's economic can also stimulate next period economic growth. At the same time, China's economic growth is also strong let the next phase the developments of E-commerce and the logistics industry.