Research framework of integrated simulation on bilateral interaction between water cycle and socio-economic development

Abstract

The mechanism of bilateral interaction between natural water cycle evolution and socio-economic development has been obscured in current research due to the complexity of the hydrological process and the socio-economic system. The coupling of economic model CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) and distributed hydrological model WEP (Water and Energy transfer Processes) provides a model-based tool for research on response and feedback of water cycle and social development, as well as economic prospects under the constraint of water resources. On one hand, water policies, such as water use limitation and water price adjustment under different levels of socio-economic development, are to be evaluated by CGE model as assumed conditions and corresponding results of water demand could be put into WEP model to simulate corresponding response during the whole process of water cycle. On the other hand, variation of available water resources quantity under different scenarios simulated by WEP model may provide proper limitation for water demand in CGE model, and corresponding change of economic factors could indicate the influence of water resources constraints on socio-economic development. The research is believed to be helpful for better understanding of bilateral interaction between water and society.