Measuring driving factors and decoupling effect of transportation Co2 emissions in low-carbon regions: A case study from Liaoning, China

Abstract

This paper presents the results of research aiming at uncovering provincial CO2 emissions patterns in China, providing insights on CO2 emissions growth in the transportation sector, and using as case to study the low-carbon pilot region of Liaoning. We performed an energy consumption analysis, a decomposition analysis, and a decoupling analysis to provide a holistic picture of transportation-related CO2 emissions growth over the last two decades, in parallel with the four stages of the national Chinese economic and social development plan, or “Five-Year Plan” (FYP). The results indicate that the CO2 emissions generated by the transportation sector in the Liaoning Province have been gradually increasing from the 9th FYP to the 12th FYP. Economic growth and population scale proved to be positive driving factors of CO2 emission changes. Specifically, the economic scale played the most significant role in increasing CO2 emissions. At the same time, energy intensity served as the principal factor in curbing CO2 emissions, while energy structure displayed relatively weaker effects. In the period investigated, the decoupling relationships have mainly experienced a clear positive trend, from an expansive negative decoupling towards a weak decoupling. Several suggestions are provided for local authorities to achieve CO2 emissions mitigation and sustainable development in transportation sector.