Capital structures of surviving Fortune 500 companies: A retrospective analysis for the past seven decades

Abstract

Sixty companies on the inaugural “Fortune 500” list still remained on this list in 2020 and they have monotonically increased their leverage (median debt to total assets ratio rose from 0.5% to 20.4%) over the past 70 years. This study applies factors from classic capital structure theories to this sample and explains the dynamic choice of debt usage. The methods employed include a Bayesian information criterion selection process of explanatory variables and a set of pooled cross section and panel tests with 3,536 firm-year observations. The tests use an array of factors extracted from several established theories on capital structure, including general economic growth, tax rate, interest rate and many company-specific variables proxying profitability and growth opportunities. The firm-level results first provide support to the free cash flow theory and confirm that company size and fixed assets proportion are the two factors associated with increased borrowing. Firms in the sample also actively respond to certain debt market and macroeconomic conditions, and their leverage ratio is significantly associated with credit spread and real interest rate. Further tests across subperiods and with risk measures illustrate the impact of expected inflation, investments activities, and stock volatility, providing supporting evidence to the organizational theory. The main research conclusion is that large US companies adopt a balance sheet-based approach to increase the use of debt, and they stay sensitive and versatile to market conditions and risk landscape.