Predictive value of a nomogram for hepatocellular carcinoma with brain metastasis at initial diagnosis: A population-based study

Abstract

Background Population-based estimates of the incidence and prognosis of brain metastases at diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are lacking. The aim of this study was to characterize the incidence proportion and survival of newly diagnosed hepatocellular carcinoma with brain metastases (HCCBM). Materials and methods Data from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program between 2010 and 2014 was evaluated. Patients with HCCBM were included. Multivariable logistic and Cox regression were performed to identify predictors of the presence of brain metastases at diagnosis and prognostic factors of overall survival (OS). We also built a nomogram based on Cox model to predict prognosis for HCCBM patients. Results We identified 97 patients with brain metastases at the time of diagnosis of HCC, representing 0.33% of the entire cohort. Logistic regression showed patients with bone or lung metastases had greater odds of having brain metastases at diagnosis. Median OS for HCCBM was 2.40 months. Cox regression revealed unmarried and bone metastases patients suffered significantly shorter survival time. A nomogram was developed with internal validation concordance index of 0.639. Conclusions This study provided population-based estimates of the incidence and prognosis for HCCBM patients. The nomogram could be a convenient individualized predictive tool for prognosis.