Wild cards in transport

Abstract

The analysis of Wild Cards, potential low-likelihood but high-impact events, in foresight studies is important in order to counter the tendency of decision makers to deny major surprises. This paper presents the results of an empirical analysis of 14 technological, geopolitical and societal Wild Cards in the transport field, carried out within the EU FP7 project RACE2050. The Wild Cards were elicited through interviews and in brainstorming sessions, and then assessed in an online expert survey. For each Wild Card, experts assessed likelihood in different time-frames, the impact on and vulnerability of different industry segments, the breadth of the effect, and the importance for decision makers to prepare. Some weak signals that may hint at a growing likelihood of certain Wild Cards were also suggested. Results show that the likelihood rises with time. Several Wild Cards reach high likelihood in 2040 or beyond, while the time by which full impact is reached varies. Based on these findings challenges and threats for transport have been identified, pointing to the fact that further research should focus on complex scenario building based on interlinks between ongoing trends and Wild Cards.