Global geopolitical crisis and tourism development in the USA

Abstract

We analyze the effect of the global geopolitical crisis on tourism development using nonparametric causality-in-quantiles. We employ monthly data on tourism development (i.e. number of arrivals and receipts) and the global geopolitical crisis from January 1995–December 2020. Various forms of global geopolitical crises significantly negatively impact USA tourism development. Furthermore, we conclude that the global geopolitical risk influence is subjective to the severity of the crisis, i.e. the more severe a crisis impacts tourism development more significantly. Our results are essential for tourism sector representatives and policymakers, as the global geopolitical crisis can negatively influence tourism receipts.