Hydrology in the Age of Artificial Intelligence: From Fragmentation to Coherent Terrestrial Hydrosphere Science

Abstract

The rapid rise of machine learning (ML) in hydrology has prompted debate about the discipline's scientific relevance. While ML often outperforms traditional models in streamflow prediction, we argue that this reflects a deeper limitation: persistent fragmentation of hydrological science itself. Narrow focus on isolated components has hindered the development of coherent, scale-relevant understanding of the integrated terrestrial hydrosphere. This is illustrated, for example, by widely divergent estimates of groundwater–streamflow interactions and of water balance-implied ongoing storage changes. We argue that hydrology's future lies not in choosing between ML and physics, but in integrating data-driven and process-based approaches to advance consistent, realistic, and societally relevant understanding of the terrestrial hydrosphere and its multifaceted roles in the Earth System.