A systems thinking approach to reimagining innovation models: The example of clean hydrogen

Abstract

As global temperatures, ocean heat and greenhouse gases reach record levels, transitioning to renewable energy systems offers hope for climate stabilisation. Globally, renewable capacity rose by 50% from 2022 to 2023.1 Clean hydrogen is attracting strong investment, yet its development is challenging as it requires supply chain-wide innovation. Sustainably transitioning to hydrogen will require thinking and acting systemically, as opposed to current business-as-usual innovation. Whilst hinting at non-linear relations and feedback loops, prevailing representations of innovation theories remain largely devoid of the feedback structures evident in transitioning socio-technical systems. In this paper, generational innovation theories are recast as causal loop diagrams (CLDs), and the Success to the Successful archetype is modified to reflect the multi-level perspective on transition theory. The outcome is twofold: to promote thinking systemically when innovating and diagnosing issues, and to show how CLDs can help elucidate the factors and interactions influencing hydrogen's trajectory.