On the variability of ENSO at millennial timescales

Abstract

We present an analysis of a proxy ENSO record spanning the last 11,000 years and we investigate its scaling properties. We find that the data exhibit positive long-term correlations (persistence) which extend to timescales up to half a millennium. This will indicate that a given ENSO state (El Nino or La Nina) may dominate the tropical Pacific for centuries. This provides new information on ENSO dynamics and its worldwide effects and opens new questions as to the kinds of mechanisms are responsible for these long-term correlations. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.