Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Driving Factors of the Urban Tourismification–Transportation Quality–Ecological Resilience System: A Case Study of 80 Cities in Central China

Abstract

Within China’s “Central China Rising” strategy, urban tourismification operates as a production mode that reconfigures spatial, economic, and ecological systems—mirroring global overtourism challenges seen in Barcelona and Venice, where rapid infrastructure development often prioritizes economic gains over ecological resilience (cf. Lines 43–46). This study examines 80 central Chinese cities (2010–2021), proposing the Urban Tourismification–Transportation Quality–Ecological Resilience System (UTTES) framework. Using entropy weighting, improved coupling coordination degree (CCD), GM (1,1) forecasting, and spatial Durbin models, we analyze coordination relationships, driving factors, and mechanisms. Key findings reveal the following: (1) UTTES coordination peaked in 2019 (pre-COVID), showing a spatial “center-periphery” gradient with provincial capitals leading. (2) Projections indicate transportation efficiency as a critical bottleneck—most cities will achieve good coordination post-2026. (3) Economic activity, social restructuring, and policy support drive the system, with spatial spillovers creating dual-path mechanisms (economic growth vs. manufacturing/environmental barriers). The UTTES framework advances a replicable methodology for diagnosing Tourism–Transportation–Ecology synergies in rapidly developing regions, integrating multidimensional indicators to balance environmental governance and tourism dynamics.