Improving Dry-Bulb Air Temperature Prediction Using a Hybrid Model Integrating Genetic Algorithms with a Fourier–Bessel Series Expansion-Based LSTM Model

Abstract

The dry-bulb temperature is a critical parameter in weather forecasting, agriculture, energy management, and climate research. This work proposes a new hybrid prediction model (FBSE-GA-LSTM) that integrates the Fourier–Bessel series expansion (FBSE), genetic algorithm (GA), and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks together to predict the dry-bulb air temperature. The hybrid model FBSE-GA-LSTM utilises the FBSE to decompose time series data of interest into an attempt to remove the noise level for capturing the dominant predictive patterns. Then, the FBSE is embedded into the GA method for the best feature selection and dimension reduction. To predict the dry-bulb temperature, a new model (FBSE-GA-LSTM) was used by hybridising a proposed model FBSE-GA with the LSTM model on the time series dataset of two different regions in Saudi Arabia. For comparison, the FBSE and GA models were hybridised with a bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), and bidirectional gated recurrent unit (BiGRU) models to obtain the hybrid FBSE-GA-BiLSTM, FBSE-GA-GRU, and FBSE-GA-BiGRU models along with their standalone versions. In addition, benchmark models, including the climatic average and persistence approaches, were employed to demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms simple baseline predictors. The experimental results indicated that the proposed hybrid FBSE-GA-LSTM model achieved improved prediction performance compared with the contrastive models for the Jazan region, with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.458 °C, a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.954, and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 1.780 °C, and for the Jeddah region, with an MAE of 1.459 °C, an R of 0.952, and an RMSE of 1.782 °C, between the predicted and observed values of dry-bulb air temperature.