Prognostic significance of early recurrence: A conditional survival analysis in patients with resected colorectal liver metastasis

Abstract

Background For patients undergoing liver resection for colorectal metastases, specific clinico-pathological variables have been shown to be prognostic at baseline. This study analyses how the prognostic capability of these variables changes in a conditional survival model. Methods Retrospective review of a prospectively maintained database of patients who underwent an R0 resection of colorectal liver metastases from 1994 to 2004 at a single institution. Results In total, 807 patients were identified, with an 87-month median follow-up for survivors. Five- and 10-year disease-specific survivals (DSS) were 68% and 55%, respectively. The probability of further survival increased as the survival time increased. For 3-year survivors (n = 504), DSS were no longer significantly different between patients with a low (0-2) or high (3-5) clinical risk score (CRS, P = 0.19). On multivariate analysis, independent predictors of DSS for 3-year survivors were recurrence within the first 3 years after a liver resection, a pre-operative carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) >200 ng/ml and disease-free interval <12 months prior to the diagnosis of liver metastasis. However, for those patients who were recurrence free at 1 year, no clinico-pathological variables retained prognostic significance. Discussion After 3 years of DSS and 1 year of recurrence-free survival, baseline clinico-pathological variables have a limited ability to predict future survival. Early post-operative recurrence appears to be the most useful single clinical feature in estimating conditional DSS. © 2013 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association.