Homicide: mortality and years of potential life lost

Abstract

Objective: To investigate the trend of homicides and estimate the years of potential life lost due to this cause in southern Brazil. Methods: This is a time series study for homicide constructed from the Mortality Information System. Years of potential life lost were estimated according to age group, sex and cause of death, and mortality rates were calculated. Trend analysis was verified by Prais-Winsten regression with calculation of annual percentage change. Results: The South had a 14.5% increase in homicide mortality rates in the historical series, with emphasis on young adults (20 to 29 years) and the male population as the main victims of homicides and with greater years of potential life lost. The highest homicide rates were recorded in Paraná, with a stationary trend (APC= 0.10%; 95%CI= -1.23; 1.65; p= 0.875). In Rio Grande do Sul, there was a growing trend with an increase of 25.0% (APC=0.90%CI95%=0.49; 1.32; p<0.001). In Santa Catarina, there was a growing trend with an increase of 20.8% (APC= 0.70%; 95%CI= 0.09; 1.32, p<0.001). Regarding sex, there was a higher prevalence of males in Rio Grande do Sul with 27.7% (APC= 0.90%; 95%CI= 0.49; 1.32, p<0.001) and females in Santa Catarina with 17.4% (APC=0.70%; 95%CI=0.50; 0.91, p<0.001). Conclusion: The trend was towards an increase in homicides in the southern states, with a predominance of homicides among young adults and the greater loss of years of life among males represents important socioeconomic issues for a preventable cause.