Imagining Ebola's next move

Abstract

As containment efforts fall short, scientists look beyond the models to envision how the epidemic might unfold.The Ebola epidemic in West Africa is growing exponentially and models show there could be hundreds of thousands of cases in a matter of months. Researchers are beginning to look beyond the models and at possible scenarios to prepare for what might happen next. Among the things they worry about is an increased risk of spread to new countries, changes in the virus that might make it endemic, a rising mortality from other diseases, and food shortages. Vaccines and home care kits might help curb new infections; whether travel bans are useful to prevent the spread of the virus remains a topic of debate.