Future changes in tropospheric ozone under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

Abstract

We consider future changes in tropospheric ozone based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), which are new emission and concentration scenarios for the 5th coupled model intercomparison project. In contrast to the SRES scenarios, all the RCP scenarios assume an emission reduction of NO x by the late 21st Century that has the potential to achieve tropospheric ozone reduction. However, increasing radiative forcing (RF) due to greenhouse gases and changes in CH 4 concentration also contribute to differences in the tropospheric ozone distribution among RCP scenarios. In the RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, assuming the stabilization of RF, the increase in tropospheric ozone due to enhanced residual circulation is cancelled out by the ozone reduction due to ozone precursor reductions. In contrast, in the RCP8.5, assuming increasing RF even after 2100, further enhanced residual circulation and significant increase in CH 4 cause a dramatic increase in tropospheric ozone. Copyright © 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.