Economic development, poverty reduction and carbon emissions in India

Abstract

This paper analyses carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from energy consumption using an input-output (I-O) model, for different sectors of the Indian economy in 1990. Alternative scenarios are developed for 2005. The I-O model considers structural changes in aggregate consumption behaviour and sectoral composition of output between 1990 and 2005. Alternative energy efficiency programmes are compared for their potential CO2 reduction in 2005. Under ambitious poverty reduction targets, the annual growth rate of CO2 emissions increases from 4.8% to 5.9%. However, energy efficiency programmes could reduce the average annual growth rate of CO2 emissions back to 4.9%. It is also seen that reducing CO2 through oil conservation is a preferred policy for India compared with saving coal.